With the government shutdown firmly entrenched after another day of failed Senate votes, the question on everyone’s mind is: how does this end? While the path is murky, there are several potential endgames that could break the current stalemate, each with its own set of political calculations and consequences.
One possible endgame is a capitulation by one side. As the shutdown’s pain intensifies, particularly after a missed military payday, the public pressure on one party could become so overwhelming that its leaders are forced to fold. This would likely involve either Democrats dropping their demand for the ACA provision or Republicans agreeing to include it.
Another scenario is a “compromise of exhaustion.” After weeks of damaging headlines and growing public anger, both sides could independently conclude that the fight is no longer worth the political cost. This might lead to the resurrection of a deal similar to the Kiggans proposal, where both sides can claim a partial victory and blame the other for the prolonged standoff.
A third, more dramatic possibility is a rebellion from the ranks. If a critical mass of moderate lawmakers from both parties decides to defy their leadership, they could theoretically band together to force a vote on a compromise bill, perhaps through a procedural tool like a discharge petition in the House. This is a long shot but becomes more plausible as the crisis deepens.
Finally, there is the “external event” endgame. A major national security crisis or a domestic disaster could so dramatically shift the political landscape that the shutdown fight suddenly seems petty and irresponsible, forcing the parties to reach a swift agreement. Until one of these scenarios materializes, the government is likely to remain closed.
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