Bank of England Holds at 3.75% as February 2026 Decision Shapes UK Economic Policy Framework

The Bank of England has maintained interest rates at 3.75% in this February 2026 decision, with the policy framework established through this and recent decisions shaping UK economic prospects for the months ahead. The cumulative effect of policy choices determines outcomes.
The monetary policy committee’s 5-4 vote represents not just a single decision but part of a policy sequence that began with six rate cuts since mid-2024. Each decision builds on previous ones, creating a policy path that shapes expectations and economic behavior. The narrow margin suggests this sequence might continue with further cuts.
This February 2026 decision occurs at a crucial moment—inflation is projected to reach the 2% target by spring, just weeks away, while growth remains weak at 0.9% forecast and unemployment is rising to 5.3%. The policy framework established now will determine whether the UK successfully exits the inflation episode or stumbles.
Governor Bailey’s projection that inflation will fall to around 2% by spring and his endorsement of 50-50 odds for March create a framework where data over coming weeks will be decisive. This data-dependent approach allows flexibility while maintaining commitment to the inflation target.
The combination of six previous cuts, this hold decision, and likely future easing creates a policy framework supporting gradual economic recovery. Chancellor Reeves’s budget measures, including utility bill cuts and rail fare freezes from April, complement this monetary framework with fiscal support. Together, these policies aim to guide inflation to the 2.1% projected for mid-2026 while supporting growth recovery. The success of this framework will be judged by whether these forecasts materialize and the UK economy achieves stable, sustainable growth with low inflation.